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Evidence
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There is overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is the primary force driving climate change. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of more than 1200 scientists from more than 130 countries have agreed that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have, with more than 90% certainty, caused most of the overall increase in global average temperatures since the mid 20th century. Their work was peer reviewed by around 2500 climate experts.
This represents the most authoritative evidence we have about climate change. Since the IPCC’s 2007 report, new studies confirm that the climate is continuing to change, that there is more evidence of change in natural systems, and that the consequences of continued change are likely to be more serious than laid out in the IPCC report.
How our climate is changing
The following illustrate just some of the evidence of climate change. Other facts can be found on the Met Office Publications website.
- Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere have risen by 40% since the industrial revolution, a figure higher than for at least the last 800,000 years
- 8 of the warmest 10 years on record in the UK have all been since 1990
- Global sea levels have already risen by 10 centimeters during the last 50 years
- Most glaciers in temperate regions of the world are in retreat, as are those along the Antarctic Peninsula and in parts of Greenland.
- In the Arctic, temperatures have risen by up to twice the global average since the mid-1970s, leading to some thawing in permafrost and a decline in late summer Arctic sea ice of about 10% per decade since 1979.
- Northern Hemisphere snow cover has dropped by 5% since the late 1980s.
Future predictions
Even if we stabilised greenhouse gases at year 2000 levels, we would already be locked into a warming of a further 0.6 degrees C by 2100 because of the time lag between emissions and temperature rise - giving and overall increase of 1.4 degrees C.
The IPCC sets out predictions for emissions paths:
- Low path: temperatures predicted to increase by 1.2 - 2.9 degrees C above 1990 levels by the end of the century
- A higher path: where temperatures increase 1.8 – 4 degrees C.
As well as rising temperatures, predictions suggest rising sea levels, more frequent temperature extremes, changing rainfall patterns, and increased prevalence of extreme events, such as droughts, floods, fires and hurricanes.
A 2 degree target
We want to see an agreement which takes action to limit global temperature increases to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, beyond which the risks of dangerous climate change become much greater.
Climate models show that above 2°C, the impacts and associated costs rise sharply, as food production declines, water stress increases markedly, sea level rises and species loss accelerates.
Related Links
Met office warming brochure (PDF 1.04MB)
